Loi du nombre d'arrivées est Poisson

Pr(k=0)

> Int(a(t),t=T..infinity); p0:= xplif(%,[lambda,positive]);

Int(lambda*exp(-lambda*t),t = T .. infinity)

p0 := exp(-lambda*T)

Pr(k=1) proba conditionnelles

> Int(a(t)*f(t), t=0..T);
subs(f(t)= subs(T=T-t, p0), %);
simplify(%); p1:= value(%);

Int(lambda*exp(-lambda*t)*f(t),t = 0 .. T)

Int(lambda*exp(-lambda*t)*exp(-lambda*(T-t)),t = 0 ...

lambda*exp(-lambda*T)*Int(1,t = 0 .. T)

p1 := lambda*exp(-lambda*T)*T

Pr(k=2) proba conditionnelles

> Int(a(t)*f(t), t=0..T);
subs(f(t)= subs(T=T-t, p1), %);
simplify(%); p2:= value(%);

Int(lambda*exp(-lambda*t)*f(t),t = 0 .. T)

Int(lambda^2*exp(-lambda*t)*exp(-lambda*(T-t))*(T-t...

-lambda^2*exp(-lambda*T)*Int(-T+t,t = 0 .. T)

p2 := 1/2*lambda^2*exp(-lambda*T)*T^2

Pr(k=3) proba conditionnelles

> Int(a(t)*f(t), t=0..T);
subs(f(t)= subs(T=T-t, p2), %);
simplify(%); p3:= value(%);

>

Int(lambda*exp(-lambda*t)*f(t),t = 0 .. T)

Int(1/2*lambda^3*exp(-lambda*t)*exp(-lambda*(T-t))*...

1/2*lambda^3*exp(-lambda*T)*Int((T-t)^2,t = 0 .. T)...

p3 := 1/6*lambda^3*exp(-lambda*T)*T^3