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Subsections


3 Max-min problems

3.1 General statement

Let us assume now that only maths and maths are known and examine what can be said when maths ranges over the family maths of all the distributions that share these parameters. In such a case, we can determine a robust value maths for the order quantity by the following algorithm : for each value of maths, we determine the worst distribution of the family, i.e. the maths that minimize the expected gain. And we chose the maths that optimize the worst case. In other words, we solve:

maths

3.2 Max-min, using triangular models

When the family is the set maths of all triangular distributions having fixed values for maths, one degree of freedom remains : the shape maths. When maths are known, the values of maths are given by:

maths

In this formula, maths should remain positive. It can be seen that if maths, then all values of maths are allowed, while maths allows only maths where maths is the useful solution of an equation of second degree. As a result, the set of the effective values for the couple maths is the grayed zone in fig:tau-cv.

In this new situation, the method to find the best decision is illustrated in the rest of fig: maximin-trian, where we have taken maths, maths and maths (leading to maths). In each subfigure, there are several curves, each one labeled with a value of maths. For example, the curve labeled "maths" describes what is the expectation of the gain, knowing that maths, but depending on the value of maths. In other words, this curve is the graph of the function maths.

For each curve, the worst case is marked by a circle. It can be seen, in fig:maxi-trian-g and fig:maxi-trian-d, i.e. for maths and maths, that the worst case ever occurs when maths. This can be confirmed by formal computation. Assuming that maths is allowed (i.e. maths), we have the following result:

maths (7)

Some computations lead to maths in the central case, to maths for small maths and to maths in the last case. In fig:maxi-trian-g we have maths and in fig:maxi-trian-d maths.

3.3 Scarf's model

The former result is to be compared with the following. In 1958, H. Scarf has proven that, over all distributions maths sharing given values of maths, the worse case for a given maths is ever a "two Dirac's" distribution. Therefore the best decision against the whole family maths can be obtained by taking into account only these Scarf's distribution, and the solution, as published in [Scarf 1958], is given by:

maths (8)

As it should be, the value of maths obtained by eq:scarf-bound is less than the maths obtained when considering only a smaller family: here, we have now maths while the same values of the parameters were leading to maths in the only triangular case.


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Previous: 2 The newsboy problem Up: Robustness Analysis of Stochastic Next: 4 How to summarize


douillet@ensait.fr
2006-03-25