Let us assume now that only
and
are known and examine
what can be said when
ranges over the family
of all the distributions that share these parameters. In such a case,
we can determine a robust value
for the order quantity by
the following algorithm : for each value of
, we determine the
worst distribution of the family, i.e. the
that minimize
the expected gain. And we chose the
that optimize the worst case.
In other words, we solve:
When the family is the set
of
all triangular distributions having fixed values for
,
one degree of freedom remains : the shape
. When
are known, the values of
are given by:
In this new situation, the method to find the best decision is illustrated
in the rest of fig: maximin-trian, where we have taken
,
and
(leading to
).
In each subfigure, there are several curves, each one labeled with
a value of
. For example, the curve labeled "
"
describes what is the expectation of the gain, knowing that
,
but depending on the value of
. In other words, this curve
is the graph of the function
.
For each curve, the worst case is marked by a circle. It can be seen,
in fig:maxi-trian-g and fig:maxi-trian-d,
i.e. for
and
, that the worst case ever
occurs when
. This can be confirmed by formal computation.
Assuming that
is allowed (i.e.
),
we have the following result:
Some computations lead to
in the central case, to
for small
and to
in the last case. In fig:maxi-trian-g we have
and in fig:maxi-trian-d
.
The former result is to be compared with the following. In 1958, H.
Scarf has proven that, over all distributions
sharing given
values of
, the worse case for a given
is ever
a "two Dirac's" distribution. Therefore the best
decision against the whole family
can be
obtained by taking into account only these Scarf's distribution, and
the solution, as published in [Scarf 1958], is given by: