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4 Discussion about hypotheses

Assuming a low value of uncertainty maths obviously leads to an order quantity near the identified mean demand. On the contrary, the preceding section has shown that the optimal order quantity may vary to a great extent for different demand models even when assuming the same characteristics maths, especially for high value of maths. Let us now discuss the meaning and the potential validity of the hypotheses that were assumed to obtain these results.

The first point to be mentioned concerns what is modeled. A probability function like maths can model our lack of actual knowledge concerning the future demand. We may for example think that a better knowledge (at ordering time) can be reached but that its cost would stay beyond the additional benefits resulting from this additional knowledge. A discussion of such cost balancing is undertaken in (Eeckhoudt and Godfroid, 2000). Another point of view is that markets are intrinsically wild and turbulent so that the probability function models the very nature of market, and not only a lack of knowledge.

The second point concerns what experimental procedure can be used to determine maths. A ''gedachte Experiment'' is as follows: starting with a great number of exact copies of the actual world, put different order quantities in these worlds, inducing them to evolve (independently) in different manners and observe what happens at selling time. This experiment is obviously impossible to carry out. One cannot escape this point of view by considering approximations obtained from times series, since only ergodicity can justify such approximations, without mentioning the fact that actual times series are quite ever too short to conclude, even assuming ergodicity.

A third point is that the actual demand cannot be measured, even afterwards when the demand overflows the inventory. In such a case, the only actual knowledge is the observation of the stock-out maths, not the exact value of maths1. Therefore, a slight shift towards over-sizing the inventory could be a good policy since it results into a better knowledge for a slight cost (Tang and Grubbstrom, 2002).

From these considerations, a more realistic point of view is to consider the optimization of the purchase decision against a family of demand models with common practically identifiable characteristics. Examining this situation with the max-min method when assuming that the usual dispersion parameters are identifiable is the aim of the following Section.


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Previous: 3 Behavior of various Up: How Robust is a Next: 5 Max-min problems   Contents


douillet@ensait.fr
2007-01-25