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3 Discussion about hypotheses

Let us now discuss the meaning and the potential validity of the hypotheses of the preceeding section. The first point to be mentioned concerns what is modeled. Using a probability function like maths can model our lack of actual knowledge concerning the future demand. We may for example think that a better knowledge (at ordering time) can be reached but that it's cost would stay beyond the additional benefits resulting from this additional knowledge (a discussion of such cost balancing is undertaken in [2]). Another point of view is that markets are intrinsically wild so that the probability function rather models the very nature of market.

The second point concerns what experimental procedure can be used to determine maths. A ``gedachte Experiment'' is as follows: starting with a great number of exact copies of the actual world, put different order quantities in these worlds, inducing them to evolve (independently) in different manners and observe what happens at selling time. One cannot escape this point of view by considering approximations obtained from times series, since only ergodicity can justify such approximations (without mentioning the fact that actual times series are quite ever too short to conclude, even assuming ergodicity).

A third point is that the actual demand cannot be measured (even afterwards) when the demand overflows the inventory. In such a case, the only actual knowledge is maths. Therefore, a slight shift towards oversizing the inventory could be a good policy since it results into a better knowledge (for a slight cost).


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douillet@ensait.fr
2005-05-13